Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 4/25/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 100, Reds 1.5 -120
• Money Line: Phillies -160, Reds 135
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 59%
• Cincinnati Reds - 41%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 61.46%
• Cincinnati Reds - 38.54%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 25, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. This National League matchup features two teams having a great season, with the Reds holding a record of 14-10 and the Phillies boasting a 15-10 record.

The pitching duel is expected to feature Nick Martinez for the Reds and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Martinez, ranked as the 168th best starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started two games this season. Despite his ERA of 4.76, peripheral indicators such as SIERA, xERA, and FIP suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Meanwhile, Wheeler, ranked as the 5th best starting pitcher, has started five games this season and holds an impressive ERA of 2.30.

In terms of projections, Martinez is expected to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 4.0 batters, and conceding 4.4 hits and 1.6 walks. On the other hand, Wheeler is projected to pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs, striking out 7.1 batters, and conceding 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks. Wheeler's high strikeout rate could pose a challenge for the Reds, who rank 5th in MLB in strikeouts.

According to the current odds, the Phillies are favored to win this game with an implied win probability of 59%, while the Reds' implied win probability stands at 41%. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in this matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (93.9 mph) below where it was last year (95.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Martinez to throw 76 pitches today (least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 6th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Cincinnati Reds have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luke Maile, Stuart Fairchild, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 126 games (+15.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 73 games (+8.70 Units / 10% ROI)

Phillies vs Reds Prediction: Phillies 4.81 - Reds 3.52

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