Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 6/12/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 12, 2024, Fenway Park is set for an intriguing interleague showdown. The Phillies are having a stellar season with a 46-20 record, while the Red Sox are hovering around .500 at 33-34, fighting to keep their season alive. This game marks the second in the series, and both teams will be looking to build on the outcome of the previous day’s matchup.

Nick Pivetta gets the start for Boston, bringing his solid 3.40 ERA to the mound. Despite a 3-4 record, Pivetta's peripheral stats, including a 2.82 SIERA, suggest he's been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better going forward. Pivetta’s low walk rate (5.5%) matches up interestingly against a patient Phillies lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB for drawing walks. This clash could neutralize one of Philadelphia's key offensive strengths.

Cristopher Sanchez, boasting a 2.71 ERA, will be on the hill for the Phillies. His advanced metrics, however, such as a 3.34 SIERA and 3.67 xERA, indicate that he’s been lucky this season and might regress. Sanchez's projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, show an average performance with 5.5 innings, 2.5 earned runs, and 5.3 strikeouts expected. However, his susceptibility to allowing hits and walks could be exploited by a capable Red Sox offense, which ranks 8th in MLB.

Offensively, Boston will lean on Jarren Duran, who has been the team’s standout performer over the last week, hitting .308 with an impressive 1.079 OPS. On the Phillies’ side, Bryce Harper has been on fire, batting .417 with a 1.338 OPS over his last four games.

Adding intrigue, the Phillies' bullpen ranks 4th, while Boston's relief corps sits at the bottom of the league. This disparity could play a significant role, especially in a tightly contested game.

With the Red Sox's moneyline set at +100 and the Phillies at -120, betting markets expect a close game. Given Pivetta's underlying metrics and Boston's potent offense, the Red Sox might have a slight edge, despite the betting odds favoring Philadelphia. Fans and bettors alike should prepare for what promises to be an exciting matchup at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Garrett Stubbs, the Phillies's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to average, Nick Pivetta has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -7.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 66 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 55 games (+18.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.99 vs Boston Red Sox 4.3

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