Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 6/16/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash in the third game of their interleague series on June 16, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are enjoying stellar seasons, with Baltimore holding a 46-24 record and Philadelphia slightly better at 47-23. With both teams boasting top-5 offenses, this game is shaping up to be a thrilling affair.

Baltimore will send right-hander Corbin Burnes to the mound. Burnes has been exceptional this season, sporting a 2.08 ERA and a 7-2 Win/Loss record over 14 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Burnes is the 20th best starting pitcher in the league, though his 3.30 xFIP indicates he might have been slightly fortunate so far. Burnes' ability to induce ground balls (51% GB rate) could neutralize Philadelphia's power-heavy lineup, which ranks 6th in MLB with 79 home runs.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has been elite this season. Wheeler holds a 2.16 ERA with an 8-3 Win/Loss record over 14 starts. Ranked 8th among starting pitchers, Wheeler also shows signs of potential regression with a 3.31 xFIP. Both pitchers project to have solid outings, with Burnes expected to go 6.0 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, while Wheeler is projected for 5.9 innings and 2.5 earned runs.

Offensively, the Orioles have been a force, ranking 1st in home runs and 3rd overall according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, despite being 10th in batting average. Gunnar Henderson has been their standout over the last week, batting .385 with a 1.044 OPS. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber has been on fire for the Phillies, hitting .417 with a 1.333 OPS and 3 home runs in the past 7 days.

The Orioles’ bullpen, ranked 13th, will need to step up against a Phillies bullpen ranked 3rd. With Baltimore's implied win probability at 55%, they are favored, but with a projected game total of just 7.0 runs, expect a tightly contested game.

In their last games, the Orioles and the Phillies each showcased their potent offenses, setting the stage for a captivating series finale. With both teams eyeing playoff spots, this matchup could have significant implications down the road.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among all SPs, Zack Wheeler's fastball spin rate of 2412 rpm ranks in the 78th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Johan Rojas's quickness has gotten better this year. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.84 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Corbin Burnes has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 4.1 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cedric Mullins II has been unlucky this year, putting up a .242 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .065 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 54 games (+15.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 67 games (+19.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 64% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.88 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.9

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