Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Prediction For 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On August 22, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies in a pivotal National League East matchup at Truist Park. The Braves, currently sitting at 67-59, are having an above-average season but are looking to gain ground against a Phillies team that boasts a strong 74-52 record. The stakes are high as both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this series crucial.

In their last game, the Braves faced off against the Phillies, resulting in a closely contested 3-2 win for Philadelphia. The Braves will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound for this game, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 28th best starter in MLB according to advanced stats. Schwellenbach has struggled with a 4-6 record and a 4.04 ERA this season but has a favorable 3.19 xFIP, indicating he may be due for better results. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, but his propensity to give up 4.9 hits and 1.3 walks could be a concern.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Cristopher Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher who has had a solid year with a 3.46 ERA and a 9-8 record. Sanchez ranks 36th among MLB starters and projects to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. However, his 5.6 hits and 1.5 walks allowed may give the Braves' offense, ranked 13th overall, a chance to capitalize.

The Braves' best hitter recently has been Marcell Ozuna, who has been on fire, recording 11 hits and 6 runs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Phillies' Weston Wilson has also been impressive, maintaining a .571 batting average during the same stretch. With both offenses capable of producing runs, the Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, and betting markets are indicating a close contest with both teams' moneylines at -110.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Over his previous 3 starts, Cristopher Sanchez has experienced a sizeable decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2122 rpm over the entire season to 2071 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Brandon Marsh has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 100.1-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Recording 17.5 outs per outing this year on average, Spencer Schwellenbach ranks in the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Batters such as Adam Duvall with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today’s version of the Braves projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .315 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .329 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 126 games (+22.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.69 vs Atlanta Braves 4.38

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