Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In a key National League East matchup on August 20, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park. The Braves are currently sitting with a record of 66-58, while the Phillies boast a strong 73-51 record, making this an essential game for both teams as they jockey for position in the standings. The Braves are coming off a solid 3-1 victory against the Los Angeles Angels on August 18, while the Phillies are looking to rebound from a disappointing 6-4 loss to the Washington Nationals in their last outing.

The pitching matchup features Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Lopez, although having an above-average season with an ERA of 2.06, is ranked 110th among MLB starting pitchers and has shown signs of inconsistency, projecting to pitch just 4.8 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs on average. In his last start, he struggled with just 3 innings pitched despite not allowing any earned runs. Conversely, Wheeler, an elite pitcher ranked 10th in MLB, has a strong ERA of 2.72 and is projected to deliver a solid performance, averaging 5.8 innings with only 2.4 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Phillies come in strong, ranking 6th in MLB, while the Braves sit at 13th. The projections indicate that the Phillies could score around 5.35 runs, significantly outpacing the Braves' projected total of 4.17 runs. With the Braves' current moneyline set at +115 and the Phillies at -135, betting markets foresee a close contest. Given the current form of both teams, this game has all the makings of a thrilling matchup, with the Phillies looking to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a Braves team that has shown signs of struggle recently.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler has relied on his change-up 7.6% more often this year (8%) than he did last season (0.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Brandon Marsh has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 101.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez's 2065-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 124-rpm decrease from last season's 2189-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, posting a .409 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .060 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Atlanta's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #1 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 107 games (+24.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 109 games (+13.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 57% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.36 vs Atlanta Braves 4.17

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