Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 8/9/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 9, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup as both teams vie for playoff positioning. The Phillies currently sit at 68-46, enjoying a strong season and maintaining their grip on the NL East lead. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are also in contention with a record of 63-52, marking an above-average campaign.

In their last outing, the Diamondbacks faced off against the Phillies yesterday, with the Phillies grabbing a 6-4 victory on the road. This game will be the second in their series, and both teams will look to build momentum. On the mound, Arizona's Ryne Nelson struggles with a Power Ranking of #164 among starting pitchers, indicating he has had a tough year despite a decent ERA of 4.65. The projections suggest he might be due for some positive regression, especially with a xERA of 4.10, which hints at some bad luck.

On the other hand, Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler is an elite option, ranked #8 in the MLB, boasting a stellar ERA of 2.77. Wheeler's ability to keep runs off the board will be crucial, as he projects to allow only 2.6 earned runs on average today.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have the 5th best offense in MLB, supported by a strong batting average at 7th overall. Joc Pederson has been heating up lately, leading the team with impressive stats over the past week. Conversely, Kyle Schwarber has been a standout for the Phillies, showcasing his power with 5 home runs in the last week.

The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a balanced contest. With the Diamondbacks as underdogs at +135, bettors might find value in their impressive offensive capabilities against Wheeler, especially if Nelson can limit damage against a patient Phillies lineup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's change-up usage has spiked by 7.6% from last season to this one (0.4% to 8%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Trea Turner has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph dropping to 84.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup projects as the 4th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's 94.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 75th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .396 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joc Pederson has had positive variance on his side given the .048 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games (+15.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 65 of their last 109 games (+13.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+11.40 Units / 88% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.38 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.39

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