Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 8/8/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: August 8, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kolby Allard - Phillies
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 8, 2024, both teams are having solid seasons, with Arizona sitting at 63-52 and Philadelphia at 68-46. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the start of their series. The Diamondbacks are currently ranked 5th in offense, while the Phillies boast a strong 7th place ranking, making for a compelling showdown.

In their last outing, the Diamondbacks had a solid performance, defeating the Cleveland Guardians. They will be looking to slow down a Phillies lineup that has been on fire, particularly with Kyle Schwarber leading the charge over the last week with 12 hits and a staggering .480 batting average.

On the mound, both teams are set to deploy left-handed pitchers. Jordan Montgomery, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has had a mixed season, with a 7-5 record and a troubling 6.37 ERA. Despite this, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.78 xFIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. Montgomery projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 3.3 earned runs, which could place pressure on the Arizona bullpen, currently ranked 4th in MLB.

Kolby Allard takes the mound for the Phillies and has been less frequently used, starting only 2 games this season with a more respectable 4.50 ERA. However, projections indicate he may struggle, as his FIP of 5.92 suggests he could be in for a rough outing.

With both teams projected to score high, the game total is set at 9.5 runs, suggesting an offensive battle is on the horizon. The projections favor a close contest, indicating that Arizona, while slightly less favored, has the potential to surprise against a competitive Philadelphia squad.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all SPs, Kolby Allard's fastball velocity of 89.6 mph ranks in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jordan Montgomery doesn't generate many whiffs (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order projects as the 3rd-best on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery has averaged 15.1 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ketel Marte has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year's 91.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+16.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 67 of their last 111 games (+15.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jose Herrera has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 64% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.58 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.33

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