Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/29/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 29, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the Oakland Athletics at Tropicana Field on May 29, 2024. The Rays, who hold a home record advantage, will be looking to continue their winning ways against the struggling Athletics.

So far this season, the Rays have had a below-average performance with a record of 26-29. Their offense ranks as the 25th best in MLB, but they excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league. Their power hitting is also noteworthy, as they sit at 4th in team home runs and 2nd in stolen bases. The Rays' bullpen has been strong, ranking 5th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the other hand, the Athletics have had a difficult season, with a record of 23-33. Their offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB, with a struggling team batting average placing them at the bottom of the league. However, they have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league. The Athletics' bullpen has performed decently, ranking 10th best in MLB.

The Rays are projected to start Ryan Pepiot, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid season. He has started 8 games with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.98. His expected ERA (xERA) is even lower at 3.16, suggesting that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pepiot is the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB.

The Athletics, on the other hand, are projected to start Joey Estes, another right-handed pitcher. Estes has struggled this season, starting 3 games with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 7.47. His expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is lower at 4.33, indicating that he has been unlucky and may improve in future performances. Estes is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In terms of team performance, the Rays have the upper hand in this matchup. They have a higher projected win probability of 62% compared to the Athletics' 38%, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. The Rays also have a higher implied team total of 4.49 runs compared to the Athletics' 3.51 runs, based on current odds.

With their strong bullpen and solid pitching from Ryan Pepiot, the Rays have the advantage in this game. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on the field. Fans can expect an exciting matchup between these two teams, with the Rays aiming to continue their winning streak and the Athletics looking to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Oakland Athletics.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Typically, batters like Seth Brown who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ryan Pepiot.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Pepiot to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Randy Arozarena is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (44.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+16.25 Units / 60% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.65 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.64

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