Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Picks 5/31/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On May 31, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the Oakland Athletics in an Interleague matchup at Truist Park. The Braves, with a season record of 31-23, are having a good season, while the Athletics, with a record of 23-35, are struggling.

The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez has started 9 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an excellent ERA of 1.75. However, his 3.86 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher JP Sears, who has been performing below-average this season. Sears has started 11 games, with a win/loss record of 4-3 and a good ERA of 3.88. However, his 4.90 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could struggle going forward.

The Braves have a strong offense, ranking as the 7th best in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. In contrast, the Athletics have struggled offensively, ranking as the 23rd best in MLB. They have the lowest team batting average in the league but excel in stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Braves rank 10th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Athletics rank 12th. Both teams have solid relief pitching to support their starters.

Based on the projections, the Braves are considered the favorites in this game, with a projected win probability of 65% according to THE BAT X. They have a potent offense and a pitcher in Lopez who has been performing well. The Athletics, although considered underdogs with a win probability of 35%, will rely on Sears to keep them in the game.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Braves have a high implied team total of 4.99 runs, while the Athletics have a lower implied team total of 3.51 runs.

As the first game in the series between these two teams, both the Braves and the Athletics will look to set the tone. With the Braves having the advantage in multiple aspects, including their strong offense and the projected performance of Reynaldo Lopez, they have a good chance to come out on top in this matchup.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. JP Sears has gone to his non-fastballs 10.4% more often this year (60.1%) than he did last season (49.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This year, there has been a decline in Miguel Andujar's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.63 ft/sec last year to 24.99 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Seth Brown, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez's 2008-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 181-rpm drop off from last year's 2189-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#1-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 34 games (+17.15 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 37% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.94 vs Atlanta Braves 5.24

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