Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 5/31/2024

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays

May 31, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 31, 2024
  • Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Aaron Civale - Rays
    • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rays 125, Orioles -150
Runline: Rays 1.5 -165, Orioles -1.5 140
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Tampa Bay Rays - 43% Tampa Bay Rays - 47.5%
Baltimore Orioles - 57% Baltimore Orioles - 52.5%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On May 31, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This American League East matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with different records this season.

The Orioles, with a stellar 35-19 record, are having a great season so far. They will be playing as the home team, enjoying the advantage of their home ballpark. Albert Suarez, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Orioles. Suarez has been performing well this season, with a perfect 2-0 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 1.53. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Suarez may have been lucky so far and could potentially perform worse going forward.

The Rays, on the other hand, have an average 28-29 record this season. They will play as the away team and are projected to start Aaron Civale, another right-handed pitcher. Civale has a 2-4 win/loss record and a higher ERA of 5.72. However, the advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that Civale has been unlucky this season and could perform better in upcoming games.

The Orioles have showcased a strong offense this season, ranking as the 6th best in MLB. They also have an average team batting average, home run ranking, and stolen base ranking. In contrast, the Rays' offense has struggled, ranking as the 25th best in MLB. However, they do have a good team batting average and impressive rankings in home runs and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Rays, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 43%.

With Suarez's high-flyball pitching style and the Rays' powerful offense, which ranks 4th in home runs this season, the Orioles may face a challenge in keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Overall, this game promises an intriguing matchup between the Orioles and the Rays. The Orioles' strong season and home-field advantage give them a slight edge, but the Rays' pitching and offensive capabilities cannot be overlooked. Baseball fans and sports bettors should expect an exciting game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Aaron Civale will surrender an average of 1.3 singles in today's matchup.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

This year, there has been a decline in Yandy Diaz's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.61 ft/sec last year to 25.17 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of squaring off against 6 same-handed bats in this matchup.

  • A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his batting average, Jorge Mateo has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .222 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .268.

  • xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+16.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brandon Lowe has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.31 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.29

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+125
19% TB
-147
81% BAL

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-108
12% UN
8.0/-112
88% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-162
5% TB
-1.5/+136
95% BAL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TB
Team Stats
BAL
3.88
ERA
4.12
.230
Batting Avg Against
.243
1.20
WHIP
1.28
.282
BABIP
.299
7.7%
BB%
8.3%
24.0%
K%
23.9%
73.2%
LOB%
73.2%
.256
Batting Avg
.251
.443
SLG
.420
.770
OPS
.737
.327
OBP
.318
TB
Team Records
BAL
26-27
Home
29-22
21-21
Road
28-16
31-40
vRHP
42-26
16-8
vLHP
15-12
21-25
vs>.500
29-22
26-23
vs<.500
28-16
4-6
Last10
3-7
11-9
Last20
8-12
16-14
Last30
14-16
A. Civale
A. Suárez
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

A. Civale

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/3 TEX
Dunning N/A
W6-0 N/A
6
3
0
0
4
1
54-82
9/28 KC
Singer N/A
L4-6 N/A
5.1
4
4
4
3
1
56-90
9/23 CHW
Lopez N/A
L2-7 N/A
1.2
7
7
7
3
2
30-45
9/18 NYY
Gil N/A
W11-3 N/A
6
4
0
0
4
1
53-91
9/12 MIL
Lauer N/A
L1-11 N/A
3
6
7
5
3
2
40-64

A. Suárez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TB BAL
TB BAL
Consensus
+122
-141
+125
-147
+124
-148
+124
-148
+116
-134
+120
-142
+125
-148
+125
-148
+122
-145
+135
-160
+125
-150
+115
-140
Open
Current
Book
TB BAL
TB BAL
Consensus
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-111)
8.0 (-109)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-104)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-106)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)