Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners Best Bet – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Oakland Athletics at T-Mobile Park on September 28, 2024, the two American League West rivals find themselves in contrasting positions. The Mariners, with a record of 83-77, have been enjoying an above-average season, while the Athletics have struggled with a 69-91 record. Both teams are looking to finish the season strong, although the Mariners are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 58%.

In their previous matchup on September 27, the Mariners shut out the Athletics 2-0, showcasing their ability to capitalize on the Athletics' struggles. The Mariners are projected to start Emerson Hancock, who has had an average season with a 4.72 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate, indicating potential challenges ahead. Hancock's low strikeout rate could be an advantage against the Athletics, who rank 5th in most strikeouts in MLB.

Meanwhile, the Athletics will send Joey Estes to the mound. With a 4.99 ERA, Estes has been unlucky according to his 4.49 xERA, suggesting better performances might be on the horizon. Estes faces a Mariners lineup that leads the league in strikeouts, possibly giving him an edge despite Seattle's patience at the plate.

Offensively, the Mariners have struggled, ranking 22nd overall, but they have shown power with a 13th place in home runs. Their best hitter, Cal Raleigh, has been a key contributor. The Athletics, ranked 21st in offense, boast a potent power threat in Brent Rooker, who has hit 38 home runs this season.

Despite the Athletics having a better bullpen ranking (12th) than the Mariners (24th), the projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, give the Mariners a slight edge with a 55% win probability. With both teams looking to make a statement, this matchup promises to be a competitive contest.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes's high utilization percentage of his fastball (54.4% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

In terms of his batting average, Brent Rooker has experienced some positive variance this year. His .298 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Shea Langeliers pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 65 games at home (+9.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 away games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.03 vs Seattle Mariners 4.24

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