Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals Pick For 5/18/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Oakland Athletics in an American League matchup on May 18, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 27-19, are having a great season, while the Athletics, with a record of 19-28, are struggling.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo, who has been performing well this season. Lugo has started nine games, boasting a 6-1 win/loss record and an impressive 1.66 ERA. However, his 3.78 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling. Stripling has struggled this season, with a 1-7 win/loss record and a 4.98 ERA. However, his 4.43 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve going forward.

The Royals' offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and a low ranking in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking fourth in the league. The Athletics' offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 23rd best in MLB, with a very low team batting average but a strong ranking in stolen bases.

The Royals enter this game as the betting favorite, with a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 61%. The Athletics are the underdogs, with a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the strong pitching of Seth Lugo and the struggling offense of the Athletics. The Royals' solid season and home-field advantage make them the favorites, but anything can happen in baseball.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Ross Stripling has a mean strikeout projection of 3.3 batters in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Zack Gelof's quickness has decreased this year. His 29.04 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.04 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's slider percentage has spiked by 6.6% from last year to this one (13% to 19.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#1-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.74 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+4.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+12.20 Units / 81% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.94 vs Kansas City Royals 5.68

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