Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 7/10/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics face off on July 10, 2024, at Fenway Park in the second game of their series. Boston, sitting at 50-40, is having a solid season and aims to extend their success. Meanwhile, Oakland struggles with a 34-59 record, making this a critical game for the underdogs.

Nick Pivetta, the Red Sox's right-handed pitcher, takes the mound against the Athletics' left-handed JP Sears. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Pivetta ranks as the 87th best starting pitcher out of roughly 350, while Sears is considered below average. Pivetta's 4.06 ERA paired with a 3.51 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky this season, indicating potential for better performance moving forward. Sears, on the other hand, sports a 4.74 ERA, which aligns with his overall struggles.

Boston's offense should be a focal point in this matchup, as they rank 8th overall in the league, with strong batting averages and impressive power numbers, including a 10th place ranking in home runs. Rafael Devers has been a standout, hitting .391 with a 1.430 OPS over the last week, making him a crucial player to watch.

Oakland's offense has been inconsistent, ranking 25th overall and 28th in batting average, despite having the 6th most home runs in MLB. Brent Rooker has been a bright spot recently, hitting .550 with a 1.515 OPS in the last seven games. However, facing Pivetta's high strikeout capability may pose a challenge, as the Athletics are the 2nd most strikeout-prone team in the league.

With a moneyline of -185, the Red Sox are significant favorites, suggesting a 63% implied win probability. Betting on Boston seems prudent, given their offensive firepower and Pivetta's potential for a strong outing.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. JP Sears has gone to his secondary pitches 7.9% more often this year (57.6%) than he did last year (49.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97 mph compared to last year's 94.9 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Batters such as Romy Gonzalez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like JP Sears who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Zack Gelof has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+24.00 Units / 120% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.72 vs Boston Red Sox 5.41

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.