The Toronto Blue Jays will host the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the American League Division Series from Rogers Centre. These AL East teams finished with identical 94-68 records this year, with the Blue Jays earning the division title and first-round bye via tiebreaker over New York. Both teams have the chance to prove they are the best in this best-of-five series. Before the action begins from Toronto, continue reading to get my Yankees vs Blue Jays Game 1 prediction.
Our Yankees vs Blue Jays Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Yankees moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 4:08 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Luis Gil (NYY) vs Kevin Gausman (TOR)
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
New York will turn to Luis Gil, who returned from a lat strain and made 11 starts this season with a 3.32 ERA. He’s dealt with control issues but has postseason experience and allowed just one run over six innings in a start against Toronto earlier this year.
Toronto will give the ball to Kevin Gausman, who posted a 3.59 ERA this year and has a 10–11 record. He’s faced the Yankees multiple times this season. He was knocked around once early, but allowed just four runs over his other three starts against them. The question will be which version of Gausman shows up in this contest to open postseason play for the Jays.
Recent team streaks
The Yankees enter this series having won two games in a row to advance past the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card round. Rookie Cam Schlittler struck out 12 over eight scoreless innings to get the Yankees past Boston in a deciding Game 3 on Thursday.
Toronto has won four games in a row going into postsesaon play. They swept their final series of the year against the Tampa Bay Rays to hold off the Yankees for the division title. Toronto will put their winning streak on the line as they look to start their postseason campaign off on the right foot.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Trent Grisham | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toronto won the regular-season series over the Yankees 8-5.
- The Yankees won the final two meetings between these teams in the regular season.
- The Blue Jays went 6-1 at home against the Yankees during the 2025 season.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 5 – Blue Jays 4
Win Probability: Yankees 53%, Blue Jays 47%
Final Thoughts
We should see a close game in Game 1 of this series between AL East rivals. I do think there are valid concerns surrounding rust for the Jays going into this game, as they haven’t played baseball in nearly a week. The Yankees are in rhythm and should do enough offensively to win this contest on the road. I’ll take the Yankees to win on the moneyline on Saturday afternoon.
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