New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/10/2024

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Zach Eflin - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are set to face off on July 10, 2024, at Tropicana Field in the second game of their series. The Yankees, currently enjoying a strong season with a 55-38 record, will look to continue their dominance in the American League East. Meanwhile, the Rays, sitting at 45-46, are having an average season and hope to gain some ground on their division rivals.

Despite the Yankees' stellar record, the betting markets see this as a close game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. This parity is reflected in the projected starting pitchers. The Rays will send Zach Eflin to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 4.19 ERA and a 3.35 xERA, indicating some bad luck. Eflin has a respectable 5-5 record over 16 starts and is considered the #33 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His control has been excellent, with a low 2.1 BB%, which could neutralize the Yankees' patient approach at the plate, as they lead the league in walks.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with Marcus Stroman, who boasts a 7-4 record and a 3.58 ERA. However, his 4.69 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate this season. Stroman's groundball-heavy approach (50 GB%) might play into the Rays' hands, as their power numbers are among the worst in the league. The Rays' offense ranks 26th in home runs but 5th in stolen bases, indicating a team that manufactures runs in other ways.

The Yankees' offense, ranked 3rd in MLB, has been a powerhouse, especially in the home run department where they rank 2nd. However, their lack of speed on the basepaths (29th in stolen bases) could limit their scoring opportunities against a Rays bullpen ranked 15th in the Power Rankings, a notable improvement over their year-to-date performance.

In their last game, the Rays saw Amed Rosario shine, hitting .500 with a 1.083 OPS over the past week. For the Yankees, Ben Rice has been on fire, with 5 home runs and 10 RBIs in his last 6 games, despite a modest .261 batting average.

With both teams projected to score 4.00 runs, this matchup promises to be tightly contested. The Rays' potential to exploit Stroman's luck and the Yankees' reliance on power hitting could be the deciding factors in this pivotal AL East clash.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2173 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2249 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 101.9-mph figure last season has dropped to 99.7-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Trent Grisham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin has averaged 17.3 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Marcus Stroman.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+15.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+10.90 Units / 27% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.44 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.17

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