New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds & Picks – 7/29/2024

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies, currently holding a 65-40 record, are set to host the New York Yankees, who come in at 62-45, on July 29, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. This Interleague matchup pits two of the top teams from their respective leagues against each other, making it a game to watch. The Phillies are having a stellar season, led by their elite right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler, who boasts a 10-4 record with an impressive 2.55 ERA. On the other side, the Yankees will counter with right-hander Luis Gil, who has a solid 10-5 record and a 3.10 ERA.

Wheeler, ranked as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB, has been a cornerstone for the Phillies, though his 3.47 xFIP suggests some regression could be on the horizon. Gil, ranked 40th, has also outperformed his peripherals, with a 4.04 xFIP indicating that his 3.10 ERA might be somewhat fortunate.

Offensively, both teams are powerhouses. The Yankees, with the 2nd best offense in MLB, are driven by their ability to hit home runs, ranking 2nd in that category. However, their batting average is a middling 12th, and they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 29th. The Phillies have a more balanced attack, ranking 5th overall, 3rd in batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases.

Kyle Schwarber has been red hot for Philadelphia over the last week, hitting .304 with 3 home runs and a 1.190 OPS. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has been equally impressive for New York, batting .400 with 2 home runs and a 1.350 OPS over the same span.

The Phillies' bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, should provide solid support for Wheeler, while the Yankees' bullpen sits at a more average 17th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the game's outcome.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies have a 54% chance of winning today, slightly higher than the betting market's implied 58%. The Yankees, conversely, have a 46% chance, suggesting some potential value in betting on New York as an underdog. Both teams are projected to score nearly five runs in what should be an exciting and closely contested game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all starters, Luis Gil's fastball velocity of 96.1 mph ranks in the 93rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Anthony Volpe is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Yankees projected batting order projects as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average pitcher, Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 8.6 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alec Bohm has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 96.9-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 60 of their last 99 games (+17.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games (+15.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.55 Units / 31% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.9 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.95

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