New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Preview – 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: BB&T Ballpark
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will host the New York Yankees on August 18, 2024, in what's shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Tigers are struggling with a record of 60-64, sitting towards the bottom of the standings, while the Yankees have been soaring with a 73-51 record, making them one of the league's best this season. In a closely contested series, yesterday’s game saw the Tigers get a win to even this series, heightening the stakes for the Tigers in this third matchup.

On the mound, the Tigers will send out Tarik Skubal, who has been nothing short of stellar this season, boasting a 14-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.53. His performance has earned him recognition as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Skubal is projected to average 5.3 innings with 2.2 earned runs allowed, highlighting his elite capability despite some concerns over his hits and walks allowed.

Conversely, the Yankees will counter with Marcus Stroman, who comes in with a less favorable 8-6 record and a 4.01 ERA. With a higher xFIP of 4.78, indications suggest he may not be able to maintain his current level of performance moving forward. Stroman's average projected innings of 5.5 and his tendency to allow 2.7 earned runs could play into the Tigers’ hands.

Offensively, the discrepancy is stark. The Tigers rank 26th in MLB in team runs, while the Yankees are firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st. The projections indicate that the Tigers might be able to exploit Stroman’s weaknesses, especially if Kerry Carpenter continues his solid play after a good run, while the Yankees are expected to rely on Juan Soto, who has been the standout hitter lately.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on pitching performance, making Skubal's elite stature crucial for a potential Tigers victory amidst their below-average season.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's 89.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.5-mph drop off from last year's 90.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Aaron Judge has been lucky this year, notching a .480 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .427 — a .053 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal has recorded 18.7 outs per start this year, checking in at the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 78 games (+20.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Tarik Skubal has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 60% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.42 vs Detroit Tigers 4.37

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