New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 6/23/2025

On June 23, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park for the first game of their interleague series. The Reds, currently holding a record of 40-38, are having an average season, while the Yankees sit at a strong 45-32, showcasing a great performance thus far. This matchup is particularly intriguing given the Yankees' potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB, compared to the Reds' 14th-ranked lineup.

Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo is projected to take the mound, bringing a solid record of 5-5 and an ERA of 3.71 this season, which is considered good. Despite Lodolo's above-average ranking as the 84th best starting pitcher, he faces a Yankees team that excels in drawing walks, leading MLB in that category. However, Lodolo's low walk rate (5.1 BB%) may neutralize that strength, potentially giving him an edge in this matchup.

On the other side, the Yankees will start Allan Winans, who has struggled this season and is viewed unfavorably in the projections. Winans is projected to pitch just 4.9 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs while striking out only 3.9 batters on average. His performance could be a significant factor as he faces a Reds offense that, while average overall, ranks 12th in home runs.

With a game total set at a high 10.0 runs, oddsmakers expect a close contest. The Reds have a moneyline of +105, implying a decent chance for an upset, especially considering their high implied team total of 4.82 runs. If the Reds can capitalize on Winans' vulnerabilities, they could very well secure a victory at home.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Allan Winans is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in the league — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme groundball batters like DJ LeMahieu usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Yankees have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Jasson Dominguez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.3% vs. 43.7% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.35 Units / 66% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 6.28, Cincinnati Reds 5.15

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Allan Winans - Yankees
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

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