New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/26/2024

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees gear up for their American League East showdown on July 26, 2024, at Fenway Park, both teams find themselves in the thick of playoff contention. The Yankees boast a strong 60-44 record, while the Red Sox are not far behind at 54-47. This series opener promises to be a pivotal matchup as both teams vie for postseason positioning.

The Red Sox will send Brayan Bello to the mound. Bello, a right-handed pitcher, has had a mixed season with a 10-5 record and a 5.27 ERA. However, his 3.60 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Bello's groundball rate of 52% could be advantageous against the Yankees' powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 149 home runs. Bello’s ability to keep the ball on the ground might neutralize some of the Yankees' power.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with left-hander Nestor Cortes. Cortes has been solid this season, posting a 4-9 record with a 3.99 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, he's the 47th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. Cortes projects to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.4 innings, which aligns with his season performance.

Offensively, both teams are loaded. The Yankees rank 2nd in overall offensive power and 2nd in home runs, although their team batting average sits at an average 12th. Conversely, the Red Sox have a more balanced attack, ranking 4th in overall offense, 4th in batting average, 7th in home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. Jarren Duran has been on fire for Boston, hitting .423 with a 1.538 OPS over the last week, while Juan Soto has been equally impressive for New York, batting .520 with a 1.731 OPS.

Bullpen-wise, the Red Sox rank 27th, a significant drop from their 17th year-to-date ranking, while the Yankees are 20th, also a drop from their 10th year-to-date ranking. This disparity could make late-game situations particularly interesting.

With a game total set at 9.5 runs and the Yankees favored with a -130 moneyline, betting markets expect a close and high-scoring affair. The Red Sox, with a moneyline of +110, have an implied win probability of 46%, suggesting this game could go either way. Both teams will look to their starters to set the tone in what promises to be an exciting and crucial matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Nestor Cortes (43.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Boston's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, batters like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Yankees projected batting order grades out as the best on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (57.8% compared to 43.1% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ceddanne Rafaela has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 7.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+6.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+15.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+17.20 Units / 172% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.54 vs Boston Red Sox 4.53

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