New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 5/12/2024

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In an American League East matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees on May 12, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays come into the game with a season record of 20-20, indicating an average season so far. On the other hand, the Yankees have been having a great season with a record of 26-15.

The Rays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander, while the Yankees are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Gil. Alexander, ranked as the #210 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a record of 1-1 this season with an ERA of 4.96. However, his 4.45 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Gil, ranked as the #87 best starting pitcher, has a record of 3-1 with an impressive ERA of 2.92. Though his 4.16 xFIP indicates some regression, he has been performing at an above-average level.

The Rays offense ranks as the #20 best in MLB this season, but they excel in team batting average (#9) and team home runs (#4). They also have a strong presence in stolen bases, ranking #2 in MLB. The Yankees, on the other hand, have the #4 best offense overall, despite ranking low in team batting average (#29). Their strength lies in team home runs (#8).

With regards to the pitching matchups, Alexander is projected to pitch 4.9 innings on average, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and giving up 4.8 hits and 1.4 walks. On the other hand, Gil is projected to pitch 5.1 innings on average, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 5.5 batters, and surrendering 4.3 hits and 2.5 walks.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The current moneyline favors the Yankees at -135, giving them an implied win probability of 55%, while the Rays have a moneyline of +115, with an implied win probability of 45%. This suggests that the betting markets expect a close game.

Looking at the teams' recent performances, the Rays' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Jonny Deluca, recording 6 hits, 7 RBIs, and 1 home run with a batting average of .333 and an OPS of 1.121. The Yankees' best hitter in the last 7 games has been Aaron Judge, collecting 7 hits, scoring 5 runs, driving in 6 RBIs, and hitting 3 home runs. Judge boasts a batting average of .350 and an OPS of 1.450 during that span.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Anthony Rizzo is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among all SPs, Tyler Alexander's fastball velocity of 88.5 mph ranks in the 1st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yandy Diaz's footspeed has dropped off this season. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (44.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 48% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.2 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.33

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.