New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/17/2024

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: June 17, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Jon Gray - Rangers

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers will host the New York Mets in an interleague matchup on June 17, 2024, at Globe Life Field. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Rangers holding a 33-38 record and the Mets sitting at 33-37. The game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

On the mound, the Rangers are set to start Jon Gray, who has been a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster season. Gray boasts an impressive 2.17 ERA over 11 starts, though his 3.51 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Despite this, Gray is ranked as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. The projections see Gray pitching 5 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 5.2 batters, but giving up 4.3 hits and 1.5 walks on average.

Opposing him will be David Peterson for the Mets. Peterson has a 4.32 ERA over three starts, with his 4.87 xFIP hinting at potential struggles ahead. The projections see him pitching 4.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.6 batters, but also giving up 4.9 hits and 2.1 walks on average.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 19th in MLB, while the Mets are slightly better, ranking 14th. The Rangers' Josh H. Smith has been hot over the last week, hitting .444 with a 1.056 OPS in five games. For the Mets, J.D. Martinez has been on fire, recording a .450 batting average, 1.643 OPS, and three home runs over his last six games.

The Rangers' bullpen is ranked 12th, while the Mets' bullpen sits at 18th. Betting markets are leaning slightly towards the Rangers with a moneyline of -125, implying a 53% win probability. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring affair.

Given the pitching matchup and recent offensive performances, the Rangers might have a slight edge, especially if Jon Gray can maintain his current form. However, with both teams struggling overall, this game could go either way, making it an intriguing contest for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The Texas Rangers have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The New York Mets projected batting order projects as the 5th-best on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Hitters such as Robbie Grossman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like David Peterson who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+15.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 away games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.17 vs Texas Rangers 4.45

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