New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 9/8/2025
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will face off in a huge game in the NL East on Monday night. The stakes are high in this contest as the Phillies hold the lead in the division and the Mets are running out of time to catch them. Both teams are led by elite run producers but only one team can get the win in this contest. Continue reading to get my Mets vs Phillies prediction for Monday’s marquee matchup in MLB.
Our Mets vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Mets Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Game: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Monday, September 8, 2025, 6:45 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Nolan McLean vs Aaron Nola
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
- The Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Mets and will look to move closer to locking up the division with a win here.
- This game features two of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. Both Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber have driven in over 110 runs this year and will look to make an impact in this massive series opener.
- The pitching matchup in this game pits youth against experience with New York’s Nolan McLean taking on Philly’s Aaron Nola.
Pitching breakdown
New York: Nolan McLean comes into this game with a 4-0 record and a 1.37 ERA. He has been impressive in his rookie season and has allowed just 13 hits in 26.1 innings so far this year. Another quality start from McLean would be huge for the chances of the Mets tonight.
Philadelphia: Right‑hander Aaron Nola’s 2025 has been rocky. He sits at 3‑8 with an ERA of 6.78. Recent starts after returning from the injured list have featured reduced fastball velocity and more traffic on the bases for Nola than usual. Against a patient New York group that punishes mistakes in the zone, he must get ahead and finish plate appearances with the breaker below barrels.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets have lost two straight games and three of their last four heading into this series opener with the Phillies.
- Philadelphia had a three-game winning streak snapped against the Miami Marlins on Sunday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto, NYM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Pete Alonso, NYM | Home Run | Yes |
| Kyle Schwarber, PHI | Home Run | Yes |
| Aaron Nola, PHI | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets hold a 7-2 lead in their season series against the Phillies.
- New York is just 31-40 on the road this season.
- Philadelphia is 45-23 at home in 2025.
Mets vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 5 – Phillies 4
Win Probability: Mets 52%, Phillies 48%
Final Thoughts
I am inclined to take the Mets as a slight favorite in this NL East contest with the Phillies. McLean is pitching very well early in his MLB career and Nola has struggled for the Marlins. I’m happy to bank on both of those trends continuing here and for the Mets to get a big win on the road.
