New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 9/10/2025
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are gearing up for the third game in a four-game series on Wednesday. This clash at Citizens Bank Park arrives with real stakes for both clubs. Philadelphia has the top spot in the NL East and is battling for playoff positioning late in the season. New York has struggled of late and needs to win some games to help protect its place in the Wild Card standings. Here, I break down this NL East matchup and give you my Mets vs Phillies prediction.
Our Mets vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Phillies -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 10, 2025, 6:45 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes (Mets) vs Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: SNY, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Key Storylines
- The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series and increased their lead in the NL East to nine games. New York almost has to take the final two games of this series to have any shot at coming back to win the division.
- New York’s Wild Card spot is also far from a guarantee at this point. The Mets are just a couple of games ahead of the San Francisco Giants in the race for the final NL Wild Card position and New York could use some wins to hold them off.
- Kyle Schwarber reached the 50 home run mark on Tuesday night and he will look to continue mashing for the Phillies in this contest.
Pitching matchup
- Cristopher Sánchez, PHI: Sanchez is 12-5 with a 2.60 ERA this season. He has been an efficient strike-thrower with a plus changeup that neutralizes right-handed bats. Recent markets have hung strikeout props in the 6 to 7 range for him, reflecting his whiff rates.
- Clay Holmes, NYM: New York’s Clay Holmes is 11-7 with a 3.61 ERA. His heavy sinker is built for ground balls. The challenge is a Phillies lineup that elevates and pulls righties at Citizens Bank Park, a park that rewards balls in the air to right field.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets have lost four games in a row coming into this contest.
- Philadelphia has won two games in a row and they have claimed four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Home run | Over 0.5 HR |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 Ks |
| Pete Alonso | Total bases | Over 1.5 TB |
| Juan Soto | Total bases | Under 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets still lead the season series against the Phillies 7-4 despite Philly dominating their current series.
- Home teams have won six straight games in the head-to-head between these teams.
Mets vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 3, Phillies 5
Win Probability: Mets 42%, Phillies 58%
Final Thoughts
The Mets and Phillies are going in opposite directions right now. Things are starting to slip away for the Mets and the Phillies are playing some of their best baseball of the season down the stretch. I’ll lay the runline with the Phillies here after they covered the runline against the Mets on Tuesday.
