New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pick – 4/1/2025

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 1, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park in a critical National League East matchup. The Marlins enter this game with a record of 3-2, enjoying a solid start to the season, while the Mets sit at 2-2, reflecting an average performance thus far. In their most recent encounter, the Mets edged out the Marlins, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Miami's Sandy Alcantara is projected to take the mound, and while he has a 3.86 ERA this season, his 2.65 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Alcantara's ability to strike out 5.7 batters per game is average, but he has struggled with allowing hits, projected at 5.2 today. This could be a concern against a Mets lineup that ranks 9th in MLB offensively, particularly with their power, as they are 6th in home runs.

Kodai Senga will counter for New York, carrying a 76th ranking among starting pitchers in MLB. His projections show he will pitch 5.0 innings with a good earned run average of 2.0, but he, too, faces challenges with walks and hits allowed. The Mets offense, bolstered by a strong recent performance from their best hitter, ranks higher than the Marlins, who are struggling at 27th in overall offensive rankings.

With the current moneyline favoring the Mets at -155, they are positioned as the betting favorite. However, the Marlins' underdog status at +135 could offer value for bettors, especially considering the potential for Alcantara to outperform his early-season metrics. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kodai Senga to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 6 batters who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Sandy Alcantara figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In terms of his home runs, Graham Pauley has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 37.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 64 games at home (+24.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 115 games (+21.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kodai Senga - Mets
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins

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