New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 5/17/2024

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Christian Scott - Mets
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup on May 17, 2024, the Miami Marlins will take on the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, who hold a disappointing record of 13-32 this season, will hope to turn their fortunes around against the Mets, who have had a below-average season with a record of 20-23.

The Marlins are projected to start Jesus Luzardo, a talented left-handed pitcher who has started six games this year. Although Luzardo has yet to secure a win with an 0-3 record, his advanced-stat Power Rankings of #52 among MLB starting pitchers indicate his potential to perform well. However, his ERA of 5.97 this season is worrisome, but his xFIP of 3.85 suggests he has been unlucky and may improve going forward. Luzardo is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, strike out an average of 6.1 batters, allow 2.5 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.7 walks per game.

Opposing Luzardo on the mound will be Christian Scott, a right-handed pitcher for the Mets. Scott has started two games this season and has shown promise with an ERA of 2.84. According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, Scott is ranked #39 among MLB starting pitchers. However, his projected stats for today's game indicate he may struggle, as he is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, strike out 5.5 batters, allow 5.0 hits, and 1.2 walks per game.

The Marlins offense ranks as the #29 best in MLB this season, reflecting their struggles. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking #3 in the league. On the other hand, the Mets offense sits at #19 in MLB, with a below-average team batting average ranking at #24.

With the Marlins bullpen ranked as the #28 best in MLB and the Mets bullpen ranked #22, both teams will need solid performances from their starting pitchers to stay competitive in this game.

The game total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +100, have an implied win probability of 48%, while the Mets, with a moneyline of -120, have an implied win probability of 52%. The odds suggest that this will be a close game.

As the Marlins face a low-strikeout Mets offense, Luzardo's high-strikeout ability may provide an advantage. However, Scott's high-flyball pitching style may work in his favor against the Marlins' power-deficient offense.

Once again, it's an exciting clash between these division rivals as they look to gain an edge in the National League East standings. With Luzardo and Scott on the mound, it will be a true battle of pitching prowess, and both teams will need their offenses to step up. Be sure to tune in on May 17th to see how this thrilling contest unfolds.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (58.0) implies that Starling Marte has experienced some negative variance this year with his 14.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Throwing 96.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Jesus Luzardo places in the 95th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Since the start of last season, Jake Burger's 16.4% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 72% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 42% ROI)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.31 vs Miami Marlins 4.16

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