New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 3, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On June 3, 2024, the Washington Nationals will face off against the New York Mets at Nationals Park. This National League East matchup features the Nationals as the home team and the Mets as the away team.

The Nationals have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 27-31. On the other hand, the Mets have struggled, with a record of 24-35, making it a terrible season for them.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has been ranked as the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gore has started 11 games this season, with a win/loss record of 4-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.91. However, his 3.51 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tylor Megill, who has been ranked as a below-average pitcher. Megill has started 3 games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an excellent ERA of 1.69. However, his 3.69 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in his performance.

Gore is a high-strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout percentage of 29.2%, while the Mets offense ranks among the teams with the fewest strikeouts in MLB. This could give the Mets an advantage as Gore may struggle to capitalize on his biggest strength. On the other hand, Megill is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Nationals offense that ranks among the teams with the fewest strikeouts. This could give the Nationals an advantage as Megill may find it difficult to exploit his strength against the Nationals' disciplined hitters.

The Nationals' offense ranks as the 27th best in MLB this season, while the Mets' offense ranks 19th best. The Nationals have been struggling with power, ranking second to last in home runs. The Mets, on the other hand, have been more balanced, ranking 11th in home runs.

In terms of the pitching bullpen, the Nationals have the 28th best bullpen in MLB, while the Mets have the 22nd best. This suggests that both teams have struggled in terms of bullpen performance.

Based on the current odds, the Nationals are favored to win the game with a moneyline set at -125, giving them an implied win probability of 53%. The Mets, with a moneyline set at +105, have an implied win probability of 47%.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill has averaged 81.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (59.2) implies that Starling Marte has had bad variance on his side this year with his 16.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the New York Mets offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (45.7% compared to 40.5% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Joey Gallo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+15.35 Units / 58% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.33 vs Washington Nationals 4.6

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