New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Kolby Allard - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on September 14, 2024, in a pivotal National League East matchup. The Phillies are currently enjoying a strong season with an 88-59 record, while the Mets sit at 81-66. This game is crucial as both teams vie for playoff positioning, with the Phillies looking to solidify their standing.

In their last game, the Phillies faced the Mets and the Mets came out on top. The Phillies rank as the 4th best offense in MLB, boasting a solid batting average and a respectable number of home runs. Kyle Schwarber has been particularly hot, leading the team over the past week with a .333 batting average and 1.221 OPS.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start Kolby Allard, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season. While his ERA sits at a commendable 3.50, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as indicated by his 5.68 FIP. Allard is expected to pitch around 4.6 innings, allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs, which could pose a challenge against the Mets' potent lineup, ranked 5th in home runs.

Luis Severino, the Mets' right-handed starter, is also under scrutiny. With a solid 3.74 ERA, he has been reliable but not without flaws, as his projections indicate he may allow 2.9 earned runs while striking out fewer batters than desired.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are projected to score an average of 4.90 runs, while the Mets are expected to score 5.41 runs, suggesting a close contest. As both teams look to capitalize on their strengths, this matchup promises to be an engaging battle in the NL East.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.D. Martinez is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Kolby Allard has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 9 opposite-handed hitters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 94.1-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 away games (+5.85 Units / 94% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.24

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