Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/9/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates (30-33) host the Minnesota Twins (33-30) on June 9, 2024, both teams look to gain momentum in this interleague matchup at PNC Park. This game marks the third in their series, with each team's performance offering clues to bettors looking for an edge.

The Pirates are currently having a below-average season, sitting three games under .500, but they've shown strong bullpen work, ranked 3rd according to advanced Power Rankings. Their offense, however, has struggled, ranked 27th overall, with dismal ranks in team batting average (22nd) and home runs (22nd).

On the mound, Pittsburgh will start Jared Jones, who has been a bright spot with a 3.25 ERA. Jones, ranked as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has been reliable, boasting an above-average performance across his 12 starts. Despite a 4-5 win-loss record, his underlying numbers suggest he's been effective.

The Twins, on the other hand, are having a slightly better season, three games above .500. Their offense ranks 16th overall, buoyed by their power hitting with the 9th most home runs in MLB. However, their batting average sits at a lackluster 24th. The Twins' bullpen also ranks highly at 7th, making late-game situations interesting.

Bailey Ober takes the mound for Minnesota, bringing a mixed bag of results. His 4.94 ERA indicates struggles, but his peripherals, including a 4.19 xFIP, suggest he's been unlucky. His 5-4 record hints at inconsistency, though projections indicate he is likely to improve. Ober is ranked 66th among starting pitchers, slightly ahead of Jones.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 51% win probability. Betting markets reflect a tight contest, with both teams' moneylines set at -110, suggesting a 50% implied win probability. The total runs for the game are projected at 7.5, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Given the close nature of this matchup, the Pirates' superior bullpen and Jared Jones' steadiness on the mound might just give them the upper hand. However, with both offenses underperforming, expect a tightly contested game that could hinge on a few key at-bats.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This year, there has been a decline in Trevor Larnach's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.64 ft/sec last year to 25.39 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jared Jones in the 91st percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme groundball bats like Oneil Cruz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.55 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.53

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