Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/30/2024

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and Minnesota Twins square off in an Interleague matchup on July 30, 2024, at Citi Field. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mets sporting a 56-50 record and the Twins at 58-47. This game marks the second in their series, with both teams eyeing a potential playoff berth.

The Mets are projected to start left-hander Sean Manaea, who has been solid this year with a 3.74 ERA across 20 starts. Despite his respectable ERA, his 4.44 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate and could regress. Manaea's season record stands at 6-4, and he typically pitches around 5.6 innings per game, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs. His strikeout rate of 5.3 batters per game is average, but he has struggled with control, allowing 1.6 walks and 5.2 hits per game.

On the mound for the Twins is right-hander David Festa, who has had a rough start to his season with an 8.16 ERA over his first three starts. However, his 4.08 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and could improve. Festa's record is 1-1, and he averages 4.7 innings per start, allowing 2.4 earned runs, 4.5 hits, and 1.5 walks per game. His strikeout rate of 4.8 per game is below average.

Offensively, the Mets have been impressive, ranking 7th in the league. They are particularly dangerous with the long ball, ranking 4th in home runs. This power could be a significant factor against Festa, who is a high-flyball pitcher. Pete Alonso has been on a tear over the last week, hitting .308 with three home runs and a 1.227 OPS.

The Mets' bullpen ranks 22nd, a weak spot that could be exploited by the Twins, whose bullpen is ranked 11th. With the Mets favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they hold a slight edge, but the Twins' potent offense and Festa's potential for improvement make this a compelling matchup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all starters, David Festa's fastball velocity of 95 mph ranks in the 86th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Minnesota Twins in today's game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .309, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Compared to the average starter, Sean Manaea has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 3.1 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Harrison Bader's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.8-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 79.5-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 97 games (+16.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.33 vs New York Mets 4.48

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