Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 6/27/2025

The Detroit Tigers will host the Minnesota Twins on June 27, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Comerica Park. The Tigers enter this game with a strong record of 51-31, showcasing their dominance in the American League Central, while the Twins sit at 39-42, struggling to find their footing this season. In their previous outings, the Tigers secured a commanding 8-0 victory over the Athletics, while the Twins managed a 10-1 win over the Seattle Mariners.

Detroit is projected to start Sawyer Gipson-Long, a right-handed pitcher ranked 208th in MLB according to advanced metrics, signaling potential struggles on the mound. Despite an average ERA of 4.58, his 3.94 xFIP suggests he may start turning things around. Gipson-Long has had a rough time averaging only 3.9 innings per outing, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out just 3.5 batters.

On the other side, David Festa, also a right-handed pitcher, has a troubling ERA of 6.39, but his 4.65 xFIP indicates he might be due for a better performance. Festa's projections suggest he will pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters.

Offensively, the Tigers boast the 6th best lineup in MLB, with a potent combination of power and on-base skills, ranking 9th in home runs and 10th in batting average. In contrast, the Twins are average at best, sitting at 16th overall, with a notable deficiency in batting average, ranking 21st.

With the Tigers’ strong offensive capabilities and the Twins’ pitching woes, Detroit sits in a favorable position to continue their winning ways. The projections give the Tigers an implied team total of 4.35 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize against a struggling Minnesota pitching staff.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Byron Buxton are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Sawyer Gipson-Long.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15.7° figure is among the highest in the majors this year (#4 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

In the last week, Javier Baez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 48 of their last 80 games (+15.33 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 66 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+5.05 Units / 17% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.79, Detroit Tigers 4.66

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long - Tigers

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