Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 9/6/2025
The Milwaukee Brewers will visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday in an NL Central clash at PNC Park. Milwaukee enters with a league-leading record built on deep pitching and timely hitting, while Pittsburgh has caught a late-season tailwind after a sweep of the Dodgers. With Brandon Woodruff slated to face Mitch Keller, bettors get to choose between two quality starting pitchers. Below, you will find my Brewers vs Pirates prediction for Saturday night.
Our Brewers vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Brewers moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates |
| Date & Time | Saturday, September 6, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Brandon Woodruff vs Mitch Keller |
| Stadium | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Broadcast | FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin and SportsNet Pittsburgh |
Key Storylines
- Pittsburgh’s recent surge includes three wins in four games powered by quality starting pitching and timely swings from Bryan Reynolds and other veterans around him.
- Early forecasts indicate a chance of showers and a light breeze around 7 mph. Any delay risk slightly favors deeper pitching staffs.
Pitching outlook
- Brandon Woodruff: 5-2, 3.69 ERA. Woodruff uses a power four-seam fastball and a slider/change combo working to both edges. He’s had one hiccup at Toronto on August 31, otherwise his run suppression has been excellent.
- Mitch Keller: 6-12, 4.35 ERA. Keller’s recent form is steady, yet career results against Milwaukee have trended below his baseline.
- History note: Woodruff is 7-3 with a 3.40 ERA in his career vs Pittsburgh. Keller is 1-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 10 career starts vs Milwaukee.
Key Players
- Brewers: William Contreras brings consistent contact with run production and extra-base hitting ability. Sal Frelick has been a spark near the top of the order. Yelich leads Milwaukee in long balls with 27 and remains a lineup shaper if active.
- Pirates: Bryan Reynolds continues to pace the order and just homered twice this week. Oneil Cruz has 19 homers to lead the Pirates. Tommy Pham has added competitive at-bats and gap power.
Recent team streaks
- The Brewers have won two of their last three games coming into this contest.
- The Pirates have won three of their last four and had a three-game winning streak snapped on Friday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Recommended Play |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
| Mitch Keller | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | Home Run | Yes |
| William Contreras | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Christian Yelich | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season records: Milwaukee 87-55 overall, Pittsburgh 64-78.
- Home and away: Milwaukee 41-29 away, Pittsburgh 41-31 home.
- The Brewers lead the season series against the Pirates by a margin of 8-3.
Brewers vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Brewers 5 – Pirates 3
Win Probability: Brewers 60%, Pirates 40%
Final Thoughts
Woodruff’s recent run prevention and Milwaukee’s stronger performance against right-handed pitching should outweigh Pittsburgh’s improved September form. Milwaukee remains the preferred side for me in this game. Under backers can justify 8.5 given both starters’ form and cooler evening conditions, though the stronger wager is the Brewers moneyline.
