Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 5/18/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Justin Verlander - Astros

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated interleague matchup, the Houston Astros will take on the Milwaukee Brewers on May 18, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. The Astros will serve as the home team, while the Brewers will be the away team.

The starting pitchers for this game are projected to be Justin Verlander for the Astros and Bryse Wilson for the Brewers. Verlander, a right-handed pitcher, has been a strong performer this season, boasting a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.38. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky, and his performance could decline in the future. Wilson, also a right-handed pitcher, has a solid ERA of 2.65 but his xFIP indicates potential regression.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Verlander is ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his skill and ability. In contrast, Wilson is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Verlander is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. He is expected to strike out around 5.9 batters but may struggle with allowing hits and walks. Wilson, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs. His strikeout projection is low, and he is expected to struggle with hits and walks as well.

Offensively, the Astros have been performing well this season, ranking as the 5th best team in MLB. They have displayed power with a ranking of 9th in home runs but have an average team batting average and stolen base ranking. The Brewers, however, have been even more impressive, ranking as the 2nd best team in MLB. Their batting average and home run rankings are lower, but their stolen base ranking is solid.

Based on the current odds, the Astros are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Brewers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130, with an implied win probability of 42%.

With the Astros' strong offense and Verlander's impressive performance this season, they have the advantage heading into this game. However, the Brewers have been having a great season overall, and Wilson could surprise with a strong outing. It will be an exciting matchup to watch as these two teams compete on the field.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Christian Yelich will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering that groundball batters have a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Justin Verlander and his 42.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in this outing matching up with 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Milwaukee's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 3rd-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.05 vs Houston Astros 5.13

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