Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 5/6/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Kansas City Royals are set to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 6, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 20-15, are having a good season, while the Brewers boast an impressive 20-13 record and are having a great season.

The Royals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ragans is considered the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite player among approximately 350 pitchers. In his seven starts, Ragans has maintained a solid 2-2 Win/Loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.44.

On the other hand, the Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson. While Wilson has been a reliable option for the Brewers, our advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that he is not performing at the same level as Ragans. Wilson's ERA of 3.00 is commendable, but his 4.05 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially perform worse going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Royals rank 15th in MLB, indicating an average level of talent. However, their team batting average ranks 19th, while their team home run ranking is quite low at 26th. On the other hand, the Brewers boast the second-best offense in MLB, showcasing their impressive talent. However, their team batting average ranks 27th, and their team home run ranking is 22nd.

Looking at the projections for this game, Ragans is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings and allow an average of 2.2 earned runs, which is considered good. He is also projected to strike out 6.1 batters, another positive indicator of his performance. However, Ragans is projected to allow an average of 4.5 hits and 2.0 walks, which are areas for improvement.

Wilson, on the other hand, is also projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, but his earned run projection is considered bad at 3.0 runs. He is expected to strike out 3.6 batters, allow an average of 6.0 hits, and 1.3 walks, all of which are areas he could work on.

In terms of team strength, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider the Royals' bullpen as the 21st best in MLB, while the Brewers' bullpen ranks 18th, both indicating average performance.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are favored to win with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Brewers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 43%.

Considering the projections, it seems like the Royals have an advantage with Ragans on the mound and their average implied team total of 4.56 runs. However, the Brewers' strong offense and average implied team total of 3.94 runs cannot be underestimated.

This game promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams with different strengths. Will the Royals' solid pitching and average offense be enough to secure a victory, or will the Brewers' potent offense overpower their opponents? Only time will tell as the game unfolds on May 6th at Kauffman Stadium.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Bryse Wilson is expected to throw 83 pitches in this matchup, which is the 15th-highest number of pitches for all pitchers on the slate today. This estimate is based on his inherent tendencies and the nature of the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Gary Sanchez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans figures to be at an advantage going up against 7 bats in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, there has been a decline in Hunter Renfroe's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.75 ft/sec last year to 26.19 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Kansas City Royals have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.6° angle is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#6 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+12.10 Units / 67% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.60 Units / 50% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.53 vs Kansas City Royals 5.22

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