Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 7/1/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 1, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field on July 1, 2024, for the first game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season with a 28-55 record, while the Brewers are thriving with a 50-34 mark. Both teams come into this matchup fresh off wins, with the Rockies narrowly edging out the White Sox 5-4 and the Brewers dominating the Cubs 7-1.

On the mound, the Rockies will start left-hander Austin Gomber, who has had a tough season with a 1-5 record and a 4.63 ERA. Gomber has struggled recently, allowing five earned runs on eight hits in his last outing. The Brewers will counter with right-hander Bryse Wilson, who boasts a 5-3 record and a solid 3.89 ERA. However, Wilson's 4.65 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression.

Offensively, the Brewers hold the edge, ranking 10th in MLB in overall offensive production. They also rank 5th in team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases. William Contreras has been their standout hitter, batting .291 with 57 runs and 50 RBIs. Meanwhile, Jackson Chourio has been on fire recently, hitting .364 with a 1.073 OPS over the last week.

The Rockies' offense is more middling, ranking 18th overall. Ryan McMahon has been their best hitter, with a .270 average and 14 home runs. Brendan Rodgers has also been hot lately, posting a .286 average and a .912 OPS over the last week.

Despite the Rockies being underdogs with a current moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as a close game with a 49% win probability for Colorado. The Rockies' offense could exploit Wilson's tendency to allow hits, and the high game total of 11.0 runs suggests a potential slugfest. Bettors might find value in backing the Rockies, given the disparity between the projections and the betting market.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Bryse Wilson has tallied 14.8 outs per start this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers (22.4% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-most strikeout-prone batting order of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Austin Gomber will hold the advantage squaring off against 6 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nolan Jones is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Colorado's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 54 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 81 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 6.5 vs Colorado Rockies 6

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