Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Pick For 7/2/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dallas Keuchel - Brewers
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers are set to clash on July 2, 2024, in the second game of their series at Coors Field. The Brewers have been having a stellar season, boasting a 50-34 record, while the Rockies have struggled significantly, languishing at 28-55. This National League matchup pits two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum against each other. The Brewers, currently one of the top-performing teams, aims to maintain their momentum against a Rockies team that has little to fight for at this stage of the season.

On the mound for the Rockies will be right-hander Ryan Feltner, who holds a disheartening 1-7 win/loss record and a 5.82 ERA over 16 starts. However, Feltner's 3.97 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could be due for better performances. He'll need it against the Brewers, who rank 9th in offense and 5th in team batting average. His control, reflected by a low 6.0% walk rate, might help mitigate Milwaukee's patience at the plate, as the Brewers rank 3rd in drawing walks.

Dallas Keuchel will be taking the hill for the Brewers. The left-hander has a ghastly 11.25 ERA in limited action this season but, like Feltner, his peripheral stats are more favorable. His 3.35 xFIP indicates potential improvement. Keuchel’s low strikeout rate (19.1%) could work to his advantage against a Rockies lineup that is prone to strikeouts, ranking 3rd most in MLB.

Both bullpens might be tested early, given that neither starter projects to pitch deep into the game. The Rockies' bullpen is ranked 20th, whereas the Brewers' bullpen is more reliable, ranked 10th according to Power Rankings. The Rockies have a middle-of-the-road offense, ranking 15th in batting average and 18th overall, while the Brewers have the edge with their superior offensive statistics.

The Rockies have been unimpressive, and considering the disparity in team performance this season, the Brewers enter this game with a better chance of coming out on top. However, with Coors Field’s hitter-friendly conditions and high projected game total of 11.5 runs, anything can happen in this anticipated face-off.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of all starters, Dallas Keuchel's fastball velocity of 86.9 mph ranks in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Christian Yelich has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Feltner is projected to throw 84 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brendan Rodgers's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 88.7-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 76-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Colorado Rockies batters as a unit have been one of the worst in baseball this year ( 10th-worst) in regard to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 51 games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 85 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 6.38 vs Colorado Rockies 5.96

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