Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 9/3/2025
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals will wrap up their midweek series on Wednesday afternoon at Nationals Park. Both clubs are well out of the playoff picture but there is still the chance to secure some value in the betting markets ahead of this contest. Before this matchup between NL East teams, you can find my analysis for this game and my Marlins vs Nationals prediction below.
Our Marlins vs Nationals Pick
- Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 3, 2025, 6:45 p.m. EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Mitchell Parker (WSH)
- Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: MASN, MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Eury Pérez has been one of Miami’s most reliable starters. He is holding opponents to a .212 batting average while striking out 119 batters in 108 innings. His ability to generate swings and misses should play well against a Nationals lineup that struggles against power pitching.
Mitchell Parker has battled command issues all season. He has 61 walks compared to 104 strikeouts across 142 innings and has struggled to limit big innings. Miami’s right-handed bats should be in a favorable spot against him.
Key Players
The Washington bullpen has been one of the keys to this series so far. They have helped hold the Marlins to just two runs across the first two games of this series and their contributions will be huge again in this game. Connor Norby of the Marlins was one of two Miami players to record a hit in Tuesday’s loss and he will be a key player again here.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Marlins have lost two games in a row and are 2-3 in their last five games.
- Washington is on a two-game winning streak. They are also 2-3 in their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Eury Pérez (MIA) | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Marlins hold a 5-3 lead in their season series with the Nationals.
- The Nationals have lost six straight games that Mitchell Parker has started.
- The under has hit in each of the first two games of this series so far.
- Home teams are 4-4 in games between the Marlins and Nationals so far this year.
Marlins vs Nationals Model Projection
- Score Projection: Miami 5 – Washington 3
- Win Probability: Miami 61%, Washington 39%
Final Thoughts
The Marlins come into this game with a starting pitching advantage. Eury Perez has been excellent this season for the Marlins and he should outperform the struggling Mitchell Parker. Parker went 0-5 with a 10.21 ERA in six starts during the month of August and that should mean problems for Washington in this series finale. I’ll take the Marlins to win this game on the moneyline to salvage a game out of this three-game set.
