Miami Marlins VS St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -175, Cardinals -1.5 150
• Money Line: Marlins 115, Cardinals -140
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 44%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 43.79%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 56.21%

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to host the Miami Marlins on April 7, 2024, at Busch Stadium. This National League matchup showcases a stark contrast in the teams' performance this season. The Cardinals boast a solid 5-4 record, indicating a good start to their campaign. On the other hand, the Marlins have struggled, currently sitting at a bleak 0-9 record, making for a terrible season thus far.

The Cardinals are expected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson, who has shown promise this season. Gibson has started one game, earning a 1-0 record with an impressive 2.57 ERA. However, his 4.54 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances. In contrast, the Marlins will likely start right-hander Max Meyer, who has a 3.60 ERA but a higher xFIP of 4.72, indicating that he may not have been as effective as his ERA suggests.

The Cardinals have the advantage in terms of team performance rankings. They have the 30th best offense in MLB, but rank 7th in team batting average and 5th in home runs. In contrast, the Marlins have the 27th best offense overall, but rank an impressive 3rd in team batting average. However, they struggle in the power department, ranking 28th in home runs.

In terms of pitching, the Cardinals have the 2nd best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Marlins rank 25th. This could give the Cardinals an edge in late-game situations and preserving leads.

Considering these factors, THE BAT X projects the Cardinals as the favorite with a 56% chance of winning, while the Marlins have a 44% chance. The current moneyline odds also favor the Cardinals at -140, while the Marlins are listed as underdogs at +120.

Both teams have their key hitters stepping up in recent games. Brendan Donovan has been the Cardinals' standout player, while Jake Burger has been the Marlins' top performer. Over the past week, Donovan has maintained a remarkable batting average of .529 with a 1.535 OPS. Burger, on the other hand, has hit 1 home run and has an OPS of .800.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Typically, hitters like Christian Bethancourt who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kyle Gibson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable edge over flyball batters, Kyle Gibson and his 48.1% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this outing squaring off against 3 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Max Meyer will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Goldschmidt in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In today's game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.82 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 away games (+11.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 29% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 3.96 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.26

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