Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Pick – 5/26/2025

On May 26, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Miami Marlins at Petco Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Padres are currently enjoying a solid season with a record of 29-22, while the Marlins are struggling at 21-30.

San Diego is projected to start Randy Vasquez, a right-handed pitcher with a 3-4 record and a respectable ERA of 3.49 this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 5.73, indicating potential regression. Vasquez typically pitches around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs but has struggled with strikeouts, averaging just 3.9 per game.

On the other side, Miami will counter with Ryan Weathers, a left-handed pitcher who has been solid in his limited starts this year, boasting an impressive ERA of 1.80. Although his projections show an average performance in terms of innings pitched and earned runs allowed, he faces challenges with strikeouts and walks. Weathers has a 1-0 record and has only started two games this season.

Offensively, the Padres rank 15th in MLB, showing average talent, while their batting average of .250 ranks them 10th, indicating a potential for scoring runs. In contrast, the Marlins' offense, also averaging in the middle of the pack at 16th, has struggled to hit home runs, ranking 22nd in that category.

The Padres' bullpen, rated as the 3rd best in MLB, should provide a significant advantage late in the game against the Marlins' struggling 27th-ranked bullpen. With the Padres favored at -140 on the moneyline and an average implied team total of 3.98 runs, they look poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Marlins' recent woes.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers's four-seam fastball usage has spiked by 5.8% from last season to this one (39.7% to 45.5%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Otto Lopez's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88-mph EV last year has fallen to 85.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Jose Iglesias usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Weathers.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Randy Vasquez has hit the Earned Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 55% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.41, San Diego Padres 4.34

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

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