Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 6/29/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a commanding position with a 54-28 record, battling for the top spot in the National League East. They square off against the Miami Marlins, who are enduring a dismal season at 29-53. Yesterday, the Phillies emerged victorious with a 2-0 shutout, showcasing their dominance in this series.

Aaron Nola, the Phillies' ace, takes the mound today. Ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Nola has been sensational this season. With a 9-3 record and a stellar 3.39 ERA, he looks to continue his dominance. In his last outing on June 24, Nola pitched a gem, going 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run, striking out 6, and walking none. His low walk rate (6.7%) could be a double-edged sword against the Marlins, who are the least patient team in MLB, drawing the fewest walks.

On the other side, Roddery Munoz will start for the Marlins. Munoz has struggled mightily with a 5.80 ERA over seven starts. Despite his high xFIP of 4.75 suggesting some bad luck, his high flyball rate (39%) and control issues (11.0% walk rate) don't bode well against a powerful and patient Phillies lineup. Philadelphia ranks 5th in home runs and 4th in walks, making them a tough matchup for Munoz.

Offensively, the Phillies are firing on all cylinders, ranking 4th in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, 5th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Alec Bohm has been their standout performer, hitting .300 with an .835 OPS and 65 RBIs. Over the last week, David Dahl has been hot, batting .500 with a 1.255 OPS.

Contrast this with the Marlins, who rank 29th in offense and dead last in home runs. Their best hitter, Jazz Chisholm, is batting .260 with 14 stolen bases. Nick Gordon has been a bright spot recently, hitting .261 with a .826 OPS over the last week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Phillies to score 5.20 runs, a high projection, and sees them as big favorites with a 63% win probability. The Phillies' bullpen, ranked 5th, further strengthens their case, while the Marlins' bullpen sits at 20th.

Despite the Phillies being heavy favorites with a moneyline of -250, the projections suggest a potential value in betting on the Marlins, whose win probability is 6% higher than the betting market implies. While the Phillies are expected to prevail, the Marlins might be worth a second look for those seeking an underdog bet.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes's true offensive ability to be a .270, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .083 deviation between that mark and his actual .187 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Miami's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the majors: #22 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Marsh has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 67 games (+25.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 away games (+12.20 Units / 33% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.02 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.16

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