Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/14/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Tyler Phillips - Phillies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On August 14, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park in a pivotal National League East matchup. The Phillies currently hold a solid record of 69-50, showcasing their strong performance this season, while the Marlins sit at a disappointing 45-75. In their last outing, the Phillies faced the Marlins and Miami earned a surprising 5-0 victory.

Projected starters Tyler Phillips and Edward Cabrera present an interesting contrast on the mound. Phillips, ranked as the 247th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a Win/Loss record of 4-1 this year but carries an ERA of 4.83. Despite this, his 4.06 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve. Phillips projects to pitch an average of 5.5 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits (5.7 on average) could be a concern.

On the other hand, Cabrera, who ranks 74th among starting pitchers, has started 12 games this year with a 2-3 record and a higher ERA of 5.20. His 3.80 xFIP indicates he might also be due for better fortune. Cabrera's projections show he may struggle, expected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs and 4.4 hits.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 7th best team in MLB, with a powerful lineup led by Kyle Schwarber. In contrast, the Marlins' offense is struggling, sitting at 29th overall. As the Phillies look to build on their strong season and capitalize on the Marlins' misfortunes, they enter as heavy betting favorites with an implied team total of 5.14 runs. With the stakes high, this matchup could further widen the gap between these two teams in the standings.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Edward Cabrera has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 5.5% more often this season (68.6%) than he did last season (63.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Kyle Stowers has big-time power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (31% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tyler Phillips struggles to strike batters out (9th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins ranks them as the #25 offense in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Tyler Phillips has notched a .248 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+13.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 38 games (+44.90 Units / 118% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.13 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.85

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