Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/13/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On August 13, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins for the first game of their series at Citizens Bank Park. The stakes are significant as the Phillies aim to distance themselves from the pack in the National League East, currently boasting a record of 69-49 after a disappointing loss to the Diamondbacks on August 11, where they fell 12-5. Meanwhile, the Marlins, struggling with a 44-75 record, recently snagged a surprising 7-6 victory against the Padres, which marked a rare bright spot in their difficult season.

The matchup pits right-handed pitchers Taijuan Walker and Valente Bellozo against each other. Walker, ranked as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, has a lackluster ERA of 5.60 this year. He’s projected to pitch only 4.6 innings at a rate of 2.2 earned runs, which isn’t promising, especially given that he tends to allow a concerning 4.6 hits per start. In contrast, Bellozo has shown flashes of brilliance with a stellar ERA of 3.05; however, his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) suggests he may have been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression.

The Phillies possess a potent offense, ranking 7th overall and 3rd in batting average across MLB. This high-octane lineup includes Kyle Schwarber, who has been on fire, recently tallying 10 RBIs and 4 home runs over the last week. With the projections indicating that the Phillies are expected to score around 5.36 runs in this game, and their current Moneyline sitting at -165, it seems there could be value in betting on the Phillies to capitalize against a struggling Marlins team.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all starting pitchers, Valente Bellozo's fastball velocity of 89.5 mph ranks in the 6th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xavier Edwards's true offensive ability to be a .300, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .083 difference between that figure and his actual .383 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins makes them the #25 team in the game this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Taijuan Walker to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 60 of their last 103 games (+13.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 31% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.13 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.4

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.