Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/28/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Tyler - Marlins
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins are set to face off on June 28, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in what will be the second game of their series. The Phillies, who have been on a tear this season with a 53-28 record, are looking to maintain their dominance in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Marlins have struggled mightily, sitting at 29-52 and well out of playoff contention.

Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for the Phillies. The left-hander has been impressive this year, boasting a 2.91 ERA over 14 starts. While his peripheral stats suggest some luck has been involved—his 3.47 SIERA indicates he might regress—he's still ranked the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sanchez projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs on average, which bodes well for Philadelphia.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Kyle Tyler, who has had a rough season. Tyler has only made one appearance out of the bullpen and sports a 4.50 ERA. However, his 2.85 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could improve. Tyler is known for his high-groundball rate (83%), which might help him neutralize the Phillies' powerful lineup that ranks 5th in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Phillies have a clear edge. They rank 4th in MLB in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, and 4th in stolen bases. Bryce Harper has been their standout performer recently, hitting .452 with three home runs and 10 RBIs over the last week. In contrast, the Marlins' offense ranks 29th overall and dead last in home runs, which doesn't bode well against a pitcher like Sanchez who induces a lot of ground balls.

Philadelphia's bullpen, ranked 4th in the league, should also provide solid support, whereas the Marlins' bullpen ranks 18th. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a 68% win probability, making them a heavy favorite with a moneyline of -260. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +220, have an implied win probability of just 30%.

All signs point to a strong showing from the Phillies, both from their starting pitcher and their potent offense. With a projected team total of 5.21 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their favorable matchup against the struggling Marlins.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Kyle Tyler has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 16.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Josh Bell has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 82.9-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins bats collectively rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 8th-worst) when assessing their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Miami Marlins have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.265) may lead us to conclude that Trea Turner has had positive variance on his side this year with his .344 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 75 games (+21.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.55 Units / 71% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.83 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.85

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