The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins will square off on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have locked down the NL East and are fighting for home‐field advantage in the playoffs, while the Marlins are well out of contention and playing for pride. Before this NL East matchup begins from Philadelphia, you can continue reading to get my thoughts on this contest, including my Marlins vs Phillies prediction for tonight.
Our Marlins vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Phillies −1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins (76-80) at Philadelphia Phillies (92-64)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 6:45 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera (7-7, 3.57 ERA) vs Cristopher Sánchez (13-5, 2.66 ERA)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: NBCS-PH and FDSFL
Key Storylines
- Pitching matchup: Cristopher Sánchez has had an excellent season for the Phillies, with a 2.66 ERA and strong advanced metrics. He is much more likely to limit the Marlins’ offensive opportunities in this contest. Miami’s Edward Cabrera has been solid but less dominant. He will need to deal with a more dangerous Philadelphia lineup on the road.
- Key Players: For the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber has leads his team in home runs (53) and RBI (129). Bryce Harper also remains dangerous in getting on base and producing extra‐base hits. For Miami, Agustín Ramírez leads the team in home runs (21) when you exclude the injured Kyle Stowers. Otto Lopez has produced solid RBI numbers and Xavier Edwards has the best batting average on the Marlins at .281.
- Recent Team Streaks: The Marlins have won six games in a row, showing they can still compete despite being out of postseason contention. The Phillies have lost two games in a row and they will try to get back on track here.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Alec Bohm | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Otto Lopez | RBI | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Philadelphia is 7-3 against the Marlins so far this season.
- The Phillies have won four of their last five meetings with the Marlins.
- Miami has a 40-38 record on the road for the year.
- Philadelphia is 51-24 at home during the 2025 season.
Marlins vs Phillies Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Marlins 3
- Win Probability: Phillies 68%, Marlins 32%
Final Thoughts
Given the way Sánchez has pitched this season, the Phillies’ superior home record, and how likely they are to produce early offense, they look like the better bet to me in this game. The Marlins’ recent winning streak shows they haven’t completely given up, but their pitching depth and power are limited compared to Philly’s. I am laying the runline with the Phillies in this game, as they should keep their hopes for home-field advantage alive with a win.
