Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Baumann - Marlins
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in less-than-ideal standings, with the Giants sitting at 68-69 and the Marlins languishing at 50-86. The Giants are projected to start Logan Webb, currently ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Meanwhile, the Marlins will counter with Mike Baumann, who has struggled throughout the season and is often regarded as one of the worst pitchers in the league.

In their last matchup on August 31, the Giants fell to the Marlins by a narrow margin of 4-3, showcasing the Marlins' surprising ability to capitalize on their chances despite their overall weak season. The Giants are looking to bounce back and regain some momentum, especially considering their elite bullpen ranks 1st in MLB.

Webb's statistics are impressive, with a 3.24 ERA and projections indicating he’ll pitch around 6.6 innings with an average of just 1.8 earned runs allowed. His groundball rate of 57% should serve him well against a Marlins offense that has hit only 85 home runs this season, the 2nd least in the league. However, Webb will have to navigate a lineup that rarely walks, potentially allowing the Marlins to make more aggressive swings.

On the other hand, Baumann's projections indicate he will struggle, expected to pitch only 2.9 innings while allowing 1.6 earned runs. Given the Giants’ patience at the plate, ranking 6th in MLB in walks, they may exploit Baumann’s control issues.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs set for this contest, the Giants enter as heavy favorites with a high implied team total of 4.32 runs, signaling confidence in their ability to turn things around after a tough loss.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88.1-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.2-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Jake Burger, Griffin Conine, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among every team in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Fitzgerald's true offensive ability to be a .299, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .078 deviation between that mark and his actual .377 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen grades out as the best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games (+14.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Logan Webb has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 2.77 vs San Francisco Giants 4.24

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