Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 6/30/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yonny Chirinos - Marlins
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on June 30, 2024, the matchup is starkly in favor of the Phillies. With a stellar 54-29 record, Philadelphia is having an outstanding season, while Miami lags behind at 30-53. This National League East clash sets up the Phillies, who are on a roll, against a Marlins team struggling significantly.

Ranger Suarez, the Phillies' left-handed ace, will take the mound. Ranking 24th among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Suarez has been exceptional this season with a 10-2 record and a sparkling 2.01 ERA. His 2.75 xFIP suggests some regression might be in store, but his current form is undeniably impressive. Suarez's projected 6.3 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs allowed, and 5.6 strikeouts are solid indicators of another strong outing. He'll face a Marlins lineup that ranks 29th in MLB offense and is dead last in home runs, making this a favorable matchup for the groundball-heavy Suarez.

Yonny Chirinos will start for the Marlins. Despite a respectable 2.70 ERA, his 3.87 xFIP hints at potential trouble ahead. With only two starts this season, Chirinos faces a daunting task against a Phillies offense that ranks 4th in MLB and features power across the board, including ranking 5th in home runs. Chirinos's high-flyball tendencies could spell disaster against the Phillies' potent lineup.

Both bullpens will play a crucial role, and here again, the Phillies have the edge with the 4th-best bullpen in MLB, while the Marlins sit at an average 17th. Brandon Marsh has been red-hot for Philadelphia, hitting .316 with a .935 OPS over the last week, adding to the Phillies' offensive firepower.

With the Phillies as significant betting favorites at -245, their implied win probability of 68% aligns well with their current form and matchup advantages. The Marlins, though big underdogs at +205, will need a remarkable performance to overcome Philadelphia’s strength on both sides of the ball. Expect the Phillies to continue their dominance in this series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yonny Chirinos in the 6th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Over the past 7 days, Bryan De La Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins hitters collectively have been among the worst in baseball this year ( 7th-worst) in regard to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's 90.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.8-mph decline from last year's 92.2-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Garrett Stubbs has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 77.3-mph dropping to 74-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Marsh has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 74 games (+23.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games (+13.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.72 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.12

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