Los Angeles Dodgers VS Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
• Run Line: Dodgers 1.5 -210, Cubs -1.5 180
• Money Line: Dodgers -110, Cubs -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 50%
• Chicago Cubs - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 54.44%
• Chicago Cubs - 45.56%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Game Preview & Prediction

The Chicago Cubs are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 7, 2024, at Wrigley Field. As the home team, the Cubs will look to continue their strong season with a record of 5-3, while the Dodgers, the away team, boast an impressive 8-3 record. This National League matchup promises an exciting showdown between two teams having great seasons.

On the mound for the Cubs will be left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga, who has been performing well with a 1-0 record and an excellent 0.00 ERA. However, our advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Imanaga is below average compared to other pitchers in MLB. On the other side, the Dodgers will start right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, who has a 5.40 ERA but shows potential for improvement according to his 3.02 xFIP.

Imanaga's projected performance indicates that he may struggle in this game. He is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings, allow 2.6 earned runs, strike out 4.9 batters, and surrender 4.5 hits and 1.9 walks on average. Stone, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, strike out 4.5 batters, and give up 4.9 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

The Cubs offense ranks as the 17th best in MLB, with an average team batting average and stolen bases. However, they have been performing well in terms of home runs. The Dodgers, on the other hand, boast the 5th best offense in MLB, excelling in team batting average and home runs but ranking poorly in stolen bases.

When analyzing the matchup, it's worth noting that Imanaga is a high-flyball pitcher, and the powerful Dodgers offense, with their 186 home runs this season (2nd most in MLB), could pose a challenge for him. Additionally, Stone's control issues may be exploited by the patient Cubs offense, which ranks third in walks in MLB.

In terms of betting odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating a close game. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Dodgers to have a 54% win probability, suggesting potential value in betting on them.

With both teams having strong records this season, the Cubs and Dodgers are expected to put on an exciting show at Wrigley Field. Will the Cubs' solid offense and Imanaga's performance be enough to overcome the powerful Dodgers' lineup? Only time will tell.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Stone to throw 83 pitches in this game (3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Miguel Amaya, Michael Busch, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.77 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 79 away games (+19.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Enrique Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.25 vs Chicago Cubs 4.52

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