Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 7/31/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers are set to clash on July 31, 2024, at Petco Park in what promises to be a thrilling National League West matchup. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Padres boasting a 57-51 record and the Dodgers sitting at 63-44. This game will be the second of the series, adding an extra layer of intrigue as both teams vie for divisional supremacy.

The Padres will send right-hander Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease has been a reliable arm for San Diego this season, and he'll be looking to stifle a potent Dodgers lineup. On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who has been equally impressive. Both pitchers have their work cut out for them, given the offensive firepower on both sides.

San Diego's offense is leading MLB in team batting average, a testament to their consistent hitting. They also rank 10th in home runs, showcasing their ability to go deep. However, the Dodgers are no slouches at the plate either. They rank 6th in team batting average and an impressive 3rd in home runs, making them one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.

Xander Bogaerts has been a standout for the Padres over the last week, hitting .583 with a 1.532 OPS. His hot streak could be a game-changer for San Diego. Meanwhile, Gavin Lux has been the Dodgers' best hitter over the same period, batting .500 with a 1.432 OPS. Both players will be key factors in this matchup.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives a slight edge to the Dodgers, considering their superior record and overall offensive metrics. However, with San Diego's top-ranked batting average and Bogaerts' recent hot streak, the Padres certainly have the tools to pull off an upset at home. Expect a tight, hard-fought battle as these division rivals go head-to-head.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The San Diego Padres have 7 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Clayton Kershaw today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Andy Pages has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 13.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably lower than his 23.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Cavan Biggio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (97.6 mph) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (96.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Over the last week, Jurickson Profar's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.7% up to 22.7%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Projected catcher Luis Campusano profiles as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.55 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 43 away games (+3.20 Units / 7% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+12.00 Units / 171% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 3.99 vs San Diego Padres 3.98

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