Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 7/11/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to clash on July 11, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup. Both teams are having impressive seasons, with the Phillies sporting a 60-32 record and the Dodgers close behind at 55-38. This game marks the third in their series, adding an extra layer of intrigue as both teams vie for positioning in the standings.

The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound, who has been a workhorse this season with 18 starts under his belt. Nola boasts a solid 10-4 record and an ERA of 3.48###101. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Nola is ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in the league, indicating his great performance. Despite his low 5.6 BB%, he faces a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in drawing walks. However, Nola’s control could neutralize this strength, giving him an edge.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Landon Knack. While Knack has an impressive 2.86 ERA in his seven starts, his underlying metrics suggest he's been fortunate. His 4.26 xFIP indicates potential regression. THE BAT X projects Knack to pitch just 4.6 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, which doesn't bode well against a potent Phillies offense ranked 5th in MLB according to Power Rankings.

Offensively, both teams are loaded. The Dodgers have the top-ranked offense in MLB, featuring the 3rd-best home run and 5th-best batting average rankings. Will Smith has been scorching hot, hitting .353 with four homers and a 1.535 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Phillies, ranked 5th in offense, have seen Trea Turner shine, batting .375 with three homers and a 1.150 OPS in the same span.

The Phillies bullpen, ranked 4th, and the Dodgers bullpen, ranked 9th, add another layer of intrigue to this matchup. With the Game Total set at 9.5 runs, expect a high-scoring affair. Betting odds favor the Phillies with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%, while the Dodgers are at +130 with a 42% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack's 2415-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 84th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Shohei Ohtani has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 19.8% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Outman, Chris Taylor, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Johan Rojas's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.3-mph average last season has fallen off to 84.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 46 games at home (+20.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games (+3.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.64 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.31

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.