Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 7/10/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers will clash on July 10, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in the second game of their series. Both teams are having excellent seasons, with the Phillies leading the charge in the National League East with a 59-32 record, while the Dodgers are not far behind in the National League West with a 55-37 record. This game holds significant implications as two of the top teams in the league face off.

The Phillies are projected to start Cristopher Sanchez, who has been impressive this season with a 6-4 record and an excellent 2.96 ERA. However, his peripheral stats, such as a 3.52 xERA, suggest he may have been a bit fortunate. Sanchez is a high-groundball pitcher, which could be advantageous against the powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 124 home runs this season. Sanchez’s ability to keep the ball on the ground might neutralize some of the Dodgers' power.

The Dodgers will counter with Gavin Stone, who boasts a 9-2 record and a solid 3.03 ERA. Similar to Sanchez, Stone’s 4.11 xFIP indicates he might regress. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest Stone will have a challenging outing, projecting him to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.0 innings.

Offensively, the Phillies boast the 5th best lineup in MLB, supported by their 3rd best team batting average and 7th most home runs. Rafael Marchan has been particularly hot, hitting .500 with a 1.404 OPS over his last 4 games. On the other side, the Dodgers' offense is ranked 1st overall, with standout performer Will Smith, who has been on a tear with 4 home runs and a 1.406 OPS over the last week.

The Phillies are slight favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% chance of winning. Given the strong performance of their bullpen and Sanchez’s ability to induce ground balls, Philadelphia appears well-equipped to take advantage of their favorable odds in what promises to be a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gavin Stone is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, batters like Gavin Lux who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Teoscar Hernandez, James Outman, Cavan Biggio).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With a 2.61 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that deals with the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher's control), Cristopher Sanchez places in the 98th percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Brandon Marsh has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games at home (+20.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.55 Units / 71% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.82 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.03

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