Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Prediction For 6/17/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 17, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field on June 17, 2024, it's clear that these two National League West rivals are heading in opposite directions this season. The Rockies, with a 25-46 record, are having a dismal season, while the Dodgers, boasting a 44-29 record, are enjoying a strong campaign.

The Rockies will send right-hander Cal Quantrill to the mound. Despite his solid 3.30 ERA, Quantrill's underlying metrics, like his 4.39 xFIP, suggest he’s been quite fortunate and might struggle moving forward. Quantrill has a high groundball rate (48%), which could help neutralize the Dodgers' powerful lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 98 home runs. However, the projections are not kind to him, forecasting 3.9 earned runs and 6.7 hits over an average of 4.9 innings.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with left-hander James Paxton. Despite a good 3.92 ERA and a strong 6-1 record, Paxton's 5.42 xFIP indicates he’s also been lucky. The Rockies’ offense, which ranks 10th in batting average (.290) but 26th in home runs, might not be able to fully exploit Paxton’s vulnerabilities. However, with a high-strikeout rate, the Rockies could struggle against Paxton's low strikeout rate (13.8%).

The Dodgers' offense, ranked 1st in MLB, is spearheaded by Shohei Ohtani, who has been on fire recently, posting a 1.340 OPS over the last week. The Rockies, meanwhile, will look to Ezequiel Tovar and Hunter Goodman to provide some spark. Goodman, in particular, has been hot lately, with a .308 batting average and two home runs in his last four games.

Both bullpens will play a crucial role in this matchup. The Rockies' bullpen, ranked 28th, has been a significant weakness, while the Dodgers' bullpen, ranked 4th, has been a strength. This disparity could be pivotal, especially in a high-scoring environment like Coors Field.

The game total is set at a high 12.0 runs, reflecting the offensive firepower and the pitching uncertainties. The Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%, while the Rockies are underdogs at +145. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers have a 62% chance of winning, making them a strong favorite in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best hitter in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .290 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 44 games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Will Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 away games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 7.2 vs Colorado Rockies 6.13

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